The Ashton Jeanty Conundrum

Is the hype real or are there issues lurking?

This is the fourth time I’ve studied Ashton Jeanty, and by the end of the draft process I will study him at least once more, probably twice.

This past summer I got my first look at him as part of a Devy series early look with RC Fischer. Here’s what I had to say based on a quick look film study of his 2023 season:

“Solid but unspectacular. Jeanty does everything well but nothing amazing. Good vision, runs tough and balanced, very good hands as a receiver, but he's not a dynamic athlete and will have a harder time with NFL defenders. Could work as a starter in a pinch but ideally he's a rotational back to give the starter a rest. Not a weapon at the NFL level.”

I also compared him to Devonta Freeman as a prospect.

That’s a far cry from the mainstream voices proclaiming him the unquestioned RB1 for 2025. Some have even gone so far as to call him the second coming of Barry Sanders.

Unlike many in this scouting business, I am very aware that I can make mistakes, huge mistakes even, especially with just a cursory look at a player. Context is massively important and it can be easy to miss crucial details. So after Jeanty’s absurd statistical start to the 2024 season, I set out to study him after the Portland St game and again after the Hawaii game.

My opinion was unchanged.

Now after 12 games I have studied him yet again…and I’m mostly unmoved. I will say I have a little more appreciation for what he brings to the table and I’ll discuss that in a minute. Big picture I’ve mentally moved him from a 3rd or 4th round draft pick worthy player to maybe a mid 2nd round pick.

That’s still a very good player in the grand scheme of things, but of course many will say I’m brain dead or don’t know what I’m talking about or any number of other insults.

So let’s talk about his profile and why I categorize him where I do.

First of all it’s important to note his size. Jeanty is listed at 5’9” 217. Players almost universally are listed taller than their actual height so Jeanty is probably somewhere between 5’8” and 5’9”. There’s no way he’s 217 lbs however. None. He’s definitely thickly built for his height, but I’ll bet his playing weight is 205 lbs at the most.

How about his speed? I’ve heard him described as explosive and elusive. He’s not explosive at all, but he does have some elusiveness to his game although I would hardly say it’s an elite ability.

His best strengths are he has very good natural vision as a runner and the ability to hit the right hole, just enough wiggle to force some awkward tackle angles from defenders, and he is quite tough and strong with excellent contact balance. Essentially what happens is he is able to get defenders off balance trying to tackle him while not being straight on and then he’ll power through the arm tackle or bounce off hits that don’t wrap him up. Add in that he’s short and powerful with a low center of gravity and he can be quite tough to bring down unless a larger defender gets him straight on.

The NFL will be much better at this than college players obviously.

And speaking of that, let’s talk about his competition because that is a factor here as well. Jeanty has played just two defenses all year that rank inside the top 75 in rushing yards allowed per game and points allowed per game, Oregon and UNLV. Every single other team was bottom half of all college football and most of them were well into the 90s or lower.

He did have 128 yards and a TD vs UNLV but that came on 33 carries for a paltry 3.9 YPC. Against Oregon he did have a nice stat line on the surface, 25 carries for 192 yards and 3 TDs, a robust 7.7 YPC, but when watching the tape Oregon had him mostly bottled up all game and allowed one carry for 70 yards straight up the gut on a perfectly blocked play. Jeanty wasn’t even touched and I’m not sure a defender came within 2 yards of him on the play. There are dozens of backs that could have made that play. Take that away and he went 24 for 122, 5.1 YPC which is fine but nothing special for college.

The reality is that Jeanty is a decent back with some tackle breaking skills, but his numbers are juiced by playing a lot of really weak competition, getting a ton of volume as a runner, and benefitting from an excellent offensive line to boot.

He is rather small for an NFL back, has average speed, and slightly above average hands as a receiver at best. He is a tough and patient runner with some decent ability to break tackles.

That’s not the profile of a high 1st round pick prospect.

The only two smaller backs to be drafted that highly in recent years were Christian McCaffrey and Jahmyr Gibbs. Both were much, much better receiving threats than Jeanty and Gibbs was much faster.

Now this does look to be a particularly weak draft class overall so I do think it’s possible Jeanty sneaks into the bottom of the first round like a Mark Ingram or Doug Martin, but again guys in that range are either larger and more physically powerful or else they are faster. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is probably his hope to go that high but even CEH was, oddly, considered a very strong receiving back for his work with Joe Burrow and an elite LSU offense.

When I think of Jeanty’s best possible upside (and probably the closest comp for him as a player), I think of Ray Rice, a shorter, powerful, tackle breaking inside runner with just enough speed to pull away if he got into the open field. Now Rice was quite successful as a player before his legal troubles forced him out of the league, but he was just the 55th overall pick in the draft.

I do think Jeanty will go higher than that, but I’m just not seeing what quality is going to make scouts and GMs want to take him in the first round, especially in an age when the position has been so devalued.

And again, that doesn’t mean he can’t produce as a player. He can given the right situation. I’m not saying he’s a bust waiting to happen like a Clyde Edwards-Helaire. But he compares closely to Ray Rice, Blake Corum, and Kyren Williams as a prospect…not Christian McCaffrey or Jahmyr Gibbs or Ezekiel Elliott…

Long story short…Ashton Jeanty is fine, decent, ok…he’s better than I initially thought, but he’s nowhere near being some elite, can’t miss player. He very well might end up being the consensus 1.01 pick in dynasty, and if that happens (and I’m not convinced it will) and if you happen to have that pick, I would advise auctioning him off to the highest bidder if you can get a king’s ransom in return.

For the price I think there are much, much better bets at the RB position in this draft, especially the guy I recently profiled and called Le'Veon Bell 2.0.

Why spend such a high pick on Jeanty when you could have a similarly talented runner that’s bigger, has better hands, and played tougher competition?

I suspect that right now most people simply see big numbers in the box score for Jeanty and assume that means he’s good. Once scouts start to dig into the numbers, see the physical testing for these guys, and evaluate the overall picture, Jeanty is going to fall a bit from his current perch and guys like Tahj Brooks are going to rise up.

For now I think the hype is far too out of control on Jeanty. Let’s see where he settles down the road, because I don’t believe the big picture view is going to be quite so rosy.